Publications
2024
- McCarthy, G; Hug, G; Smeed, D A; Moat, B. I; (2024) Signal and noise in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26o N Earthex.
- Nejad, A.; Alaiz-Rodreguez, R; McCarthy, G D; Kelleher, B Grey, A; Parnell, A; (2024) SERT: A transformer based model for multivariate temporal sensor data with missing values for environmental monitoring. Computers & Geosciences.
- Clarke, B; Thorne, P; Ryan, C; Zachariah, M; Murphy, Conor; McCarthy, G, O’Connor, Paul; Eresanya, E; Cahill, Niamh; Coonan, Barry; (2024) Climate change made the extreme 2-day rainfall event associated with flooding in Midleton, Ireland more likely and more intense
- Omonigbehin, O., Eresanya, E; Tao, A., Setordjie V., Daramola, S., Adebiyi, A., (2024) Long-Term Evolution of Significant Wave Height in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic between 1940 and 2022 Using the ERA5 Data. Journal of MArine Science and Engineering.
- Morakinyo, T.E., Ishola, K.A., Eresanya, E, Daramola, M.T., Balogun, I, A (2024). Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data . Weather and Climate extrems.
- Upton, M; Parnell, A; Kemp, A; Ashe, E; McCarthy, G; Cahill, N; (2024)A noisy-input generalized additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
- McLoughlin, P.J., McCarthy, G.D., Nolan, G., Lawlor, R. & Hickey, K. (2024) The accurate digitization of historical sea level records. Geoscience Data Journal, 00, 1–16
- Daly, E; Nolan, G; Berry, A; Büscher, J V; Cave, R R; Caesar, L; Cronin, M; Fennell, S; Lyons, K; McAleer, A (2024). Diurnal to interannual variability in the Northeast Atlantic from hydrographic transects and fixed time-series across the Rockall Trough. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers. 104233
2023
- Upton, M; Parnell, A; Kemp, A Ashe, E; McCarthy, G; Cahill, Niamh (2023) A noisy-input generalised additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America. arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.09556
- Upton, M, Cahill, N. Parnell, A (2023) Statistical modelling for relative sea-level data. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Science. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Science,
- Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Düsterhus, A. . Müller W.A., Barnes, E.A., Baehr, J. (2023) Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 e2022GL100727
- McCarthy G.D., Caesar, L. Ulthaman, A. , Daly, E. (2023) Irish Ocean Climate and Ecosystem Status Report.
- McCarthy, G.D ,Burmeister, K. Cunningham, SA Düsterhus, A. Frajka-Williams, E Graham, JA Hodge, K Holliday, NP Inall, M Jackson, LC Menary, MB Moat, BI. Moffa-Sanchez, P. Oltmanns, M. Polton, JA. Rabe, B. Robson, J. Thornalley DJR (2023), Climate change impacts on ocean circulation relevant to the UK and Ireland , Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership 10.14465/2023.reu05.cir
- Rousi, E, Fink, A.H, Andersen L.S, Becker F.N, Beobide-Arsuaga G, Breil M, Cozzi G, Heinke J, Jach L, Niermann D, Petrovic D, Richling A, Riebold J, Steidl S, Suarez-Gutierrez L, Tradowsky J, Coumou D, Düsterhus A, Ellsäßer F, Fragkoulidis G, Gliksman D, Handorf D, Haustein K, Kornhuber K, Kunstmann H, Pinto J.G, Warrach-Sagi K, Xoplaki E. (2023). The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 1699–1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023
- Hallam, S. , McCarthy, G.D. Feng, X Josey, S.A. Harris, E. Düsterhus, A. Ogungbenro, S. Hirschi JJM. (2023) The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land. Environmental Research Communications. 10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c
- Nejad, A,S; Alaiz-Rodríguez, R .; McCarthy, G.D; Kelleher, B; Grey, A; Parnell, A. (2023). SERT: A Transfomer Based Model for Spatio-Temporal Sensor Data with Missing Values for Environmental Monitoring. arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.03042.
- Roseby, Z, A; Southall, K; Alvarez-Agoues, F; Cahill, N; McCarthy, G.D.; Edwards, R.J; (2023). Two Centuries of Relative Sea-Level Rise in Dublin, Ireland, Reconstructed by Geological Tide Gauge. Open Quaternary, 9, 3
- McCarthy, G. D; Caesar, L. (2023). Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 381.
- McCarthy, G; Plecha, S; Charria, G; Simon, A; Poppeschi, C; Russo, A; (2023). The marine heatwave west of Ireland in June 2023. Weather 78. 321-323
2022
- L. Caesar, G. D. McCarthy, D. J. R. Thomalley, N. Cahill, S. Rahmsdorf (2022): Reply to: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain, Nature Geoscience
- S. Hallam, S. A. Josey, G. D. McCarthy, J. J-M Hirschi (2022): A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011, Climate Dynamics, 59, 1897–1918
- V. Caínzos, A. Hernández‐Guerra, G. D. McCarthy, E. L. McDonagh, M. Cubas Armas, M. D. Pérez‐Hernández (2022): Thirty years of GOSHIP and WOCE data: Atlantic Overturning of mass, heat and freshwater transport, Geophysical Research Letters, e2021GL096527,
- B. Berx, D. Volkov, J. Baehr, M. O. Baringer, P. Brandt, K. Burmeister, S. Cunningham, M. F. de Jong, L. de Steur, S. Dong, E. Frajka-Williams, G. J. Goni, N. P. Holliday, R. Hummels, R. Ingvaldsen, K. Jochumsen, W. Johns, S. Jónsson, J. Karstensen, D. Kieke, R. Krishfield, M. Lankhorst, K. M. H. Larsen, I. Le Bras, C. M. Lee, F. Li, S. Lozier, A. Macrander, G. McCarthy, C. Mertens, B. Moat, M. Moritz, R. Perez, I. Polyakov, A. Proshutinsky, B. Rabe, M. Rhein, C. Schmid, Ø. Skagseth, D. A. Smeed, M. – L. Timmermans, W. – J. von Appen, B. Williams, R. Woodgate, I. Yashayaev (2022): Climate-Relevant Ocean Transport Measurements in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, Oceanography, 24
- A. Shoari Nejad, A. C. Parnell, A. Greene, B. P. Kelleher, P. Thorne, R. Devoy, G. McCarthy (2022): A newly reconciled data set for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay, Ocean Science, 18, 511-522,
- E. Harris, R. Marsh, J. P. Grist, G. D. McCarthy (2022): The Water Mass Transformation Framework and Variability in Hurricane Activity, Climate Dynamics, 59, 961-972,
- S. Michel, D. Swingedouw, P. Ortega, G. Gastineau, J. Mignot, G. McCarthy, M. Khodri (2022): Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction, Nature Communications, 13, 5176
- G. D. McCarthy and A. Berry (2021): Observation of a meteotsunami on the south coast of Ireland, Weather, 77, 8, 281-282,
- A. Shoari Nejad, A. C. Parnell, A. Greene, B. P. Kelleher, P. Thorne, R. Devoy, G. D. McCarthy (2022): A newly reconciled dataset for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay, Ocean Science, 18, 511-522.
- M. Dobrynin, A. Düsterhus, K. Fröhlich, P. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr (2022): Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL095063.
2021
- E. L. Worthington, B. I. Moat, D. A.Smeed, J. V. Mecking, R. Marsh, G. D. McCarthy (2021): A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline, Ocean Science, 17, 285-299.
- L. Caesar, G. D. McCarthy, D. J. R. Thornalley, N. Cahill, S. Rahmstorf (2021): Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium, Nature Geoscience, 14, 3, 118-120,
- T. Eldevik, L. Anderson, H. Asbjørnsen, B. Balino, J.-M. Beckers, H. Cabral, J. Deshayes, F. Dias, J.-C. Duplessy, M. Estrada Miyare, B. Hansen, G. McCarthy, M. Norton, T. Palmer, L. Smedsrud, P. Uotila, E. van Sebille, M. Visbeck, L. Walløe (2021): A sea of change: Europe’s future in the Atlantic realm, European Academies Science Advisory Council Policy Report, 42,
- W. Cámaro García, N. Dwyer, F. Barrett, A. Berry, M. Cronin, C. Cusack, S. Gallagher, J. Gault, M. Gill, E. Gleeson, J. Hanley, P. Kane, K. Lambkin, R. Lawlor, K. Lydon, K. Lyons, D. Martin, G. McCarthy, E. McGovern, C. Murphy, G. Nolan, C. Nugent, B. O’Dwyer, J. Ovadnevaite, C. Quinlan, M. Saunders, J. Silke, G. Smith, R. Thomas, S. Walsh, G. Westbrook, E. Whelan, R. Wilkes (2021): Climate Status Report for Ireland 2020, EPA Research Report, 386, 234, (link)
- S. K. Gulev, P. W. Thorne, J. Ahn, F. J. Dentener, C. M. Domingues, S. Gerland, D. Gong, D. S. Kaufman, H. C. Nnamchi, J. Quaas, J. A. Rivera, S. Sathyendranath, S. L. Smith, B. Trewin, K. von Shuckmann, R. S. Vose(2021): Changing State of the Climate System, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- S. T. Diabaté, D. Swingedouw, J J.-M. Hirschi, A. Duchez, P. J. Leadbitter, I. D. Haigh, G. D. McCarthy (2021): Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans, Ocean Science, 17, 1449-1471,
- C. Garcia-Soto, L. Cheng, L. Caesar, S. Schmidtko, E. B. Jewett, A. Cheripka, et al (2021): An Overview of Ocean Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Ocean pH, Dissolved Oxygen Concentration, Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Thickness and Volume, Sea Level and Strength of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 1266
- C. Garcia-Soto, L. Caesar, A. Cazenave, L. Cheng, A. Cheripka, P. Durack, et al. (2021): Chapter 05, Trends in the physical and chemical state of the ocean, World Ocean Assessment II, 83-110.
- M. A. Christie, C. E. Bernhardt, A. C. Parnell, T. A. Shaw, N. S. Khan, D R. Corbett, A. García-Artola, J. Clear, J. S. Walker, J. P. Donnelly, T. R. Hasse, B. P. Horton (2021): Pollen Geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the Last 500 Years, Water, 13, 3, 362
- D. T. Pugh, E. Bridge, R. Edwards, P. Hogarth, G. Westbrook, P. Woodworth, G. D. McCarthy (2021): Mean Sea Level and Tidal Change in Ireland since 1842: A case study of Cork, Ocean Science, 17, 1623-1637.
- J. S. Walker, R.E. Kopp, E. Robert, T. A. Shaw, N. Cahill, N. S. Khan, D. C. Barber, E. L. Ashe, M. J. Brain, J. L. Clear, D. R. Corbett, B. P. Horton (2021): Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 12, 1, 1841.
- J. Croke, J. Vítkovský, K. Hughes, M. Campbell, S. Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, A. Parnell, N. Cahill, R. Dalla Pozza (2021): A palaeoclimate proxy database for water security planning in Queensland Australia. Scientific Data Nature Scientific Data, 8, 292, 1-16.
- P. Pieper, A. Düsterhus & J. Baehr (2021): Improving seasonal drought predictions by conditioning on ENSO states, Envorinmental Research Letters, 16, 94927.
- B. Mayer, A. Düsterhus & J. Baehr (2021): When does the Lorenz 1963 Model exhibit the Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox?, Geophysical Research Letters, e2020GL089283.
- V. Koul, C. Sguotti, M. Årthun, S. Brune, A. Düsterhus, B. Bogstad, G. Ottersen, J. Baehr, C. Schrum, Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 140.
- K. A. Lawal, E. Olaniyan, I. Ishiyaku, L. C. Hirons, E. Thompson, J. Talib, V. L. Boult, S. B. Ogungbenro, I. E. Gbode, V. O. Ajayi, E. C. Okogbue, E. A. Adefisan, V. S. Indasi, L. Youds, E. Nkiaka, D. A. Stone, R. Nzekwu, O. Folorunso, J. A. Oyedepo, M. G. Newand, S. J. Woolnough (2021): Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecast in Nigeria, Frontiers in Climate, 3, 712502,
2020
- G. D. McCarthy, P. J. Brown, C. N. Flagg, G. Goni, L. Houpert, C. W. Hughes; R. Hummels, M. Inall, K. Jochumsen, K. M. H. Larsen (2020): Sustainable observations of the AMOC: Methodology and Technology, Reviews of Geophysics, 58 (1), e2019RG000654.
- H. Bryden, B. King, G. D. McCarthy, E. McDonagh; B. I. Moat, D. Smeed (2019): Reduction in ocean heat transport at 26°N since 2008 cools the eastern subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Climate, 33, 1677–1689.
- G. D. McCarthy, L. C. Jackson, S. A. Cunningham, N. P. Holliday, D. A. Smeed, D. P. Stevens (2020): Sustainable observations of the AMOC: Methodology and Technology, MCCIP Science Review, 190-207
- A. Düsterhus (2020): Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 27, 121-131.
- P. Pieper, A. Düsterhus & J. Baehr (2020): A universal Standardized Precipitation Index candidate distribution function for observations and simulations, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(9), 4541-4565.
- J. O’Sullivan, C. Sweeney, A. C. Parnell (2020): Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum temperatures in County Dublin, Ireland, Environmetrics, 31, e2621,
- A. Hernández, C. Martin-Puertas, P. Moffa-Sánchez, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, S. Blockley, K. M. Cobb, L. Comas-Bru, S. Giralt, H. Goosse, J. Luterbacher, B. Martrat, R. Muscheler, A. C. Parnell, S. Pla-Rabes, J. Sjolte, A. A. Scaife, D. Swingedouw, E. Wise, G. Xu (2020): Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene, Earth-Science Reviews, 209, 103286.
- A. Hernández, G. Sánchez-López, S. Pla-Rabes, L. Comas-Bru, A. C. Parnell, N. Cahill, A. Geyer, R. M. Trigo, S. Giralt (2020): A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula, Scientific Reports, 10, 14961
- L. Caesar, S. Rahmsdorf, F. Feulner (2020): On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming, Environmental Research Letters, 15, 024003.
- L. Caesar, S. Rahmsdorf, F. Feulner (2020): Reply to the Comment on “On the relationship between AMOC slowdown and global surface warming“, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 38002.
2019
- E. Frajka-Williams, I. J. Ansorge, J. Baehr, H. L. Bryden, M. Paz Chidichimo, S. A Cunningham, G. Danabasoglu, S. Dong, K. A. Donohue, S. Elipot, P. Heimbach, N. P. Holliday, R. Hummels, L. C. Jackson, J. Karstensen, M. Lankhorst, I. A. Le Bras, M. S. Lozier, E. L. McDonagh, C. S. Meinen, H. Mercier, B. I. Moat, R. C. Perez, C. G. Piecuch, Monika Rhein, M. A. Srokosz, K. E. Trenberth, S. Bacon, G. Forget, G. Goni, D. Kieke, J. Koelling, T. Lamont, G. D. McCarthy, C. Mertens, U. Send, D. A. Smeed, S. Speich, M. van den Berg, D. Volkov and C. Wilson (2019): Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Observed transports and variability, Frontiers in Marine Science, 6 (260)
- B. I. Moat, B. Sinha, S. A. Josey, J. Robson, P. Ortega, F. Sévellec, N. P. Holliday, G. D. McCarthy, A. L. New, J. J.-M. Hirschi (2019): Insights into Decadal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Eddy-Permitting Coupled Climate Model, Journal of Climate, 32 (18), 6137-6161,
- C. M. Little, A. Hu, C. W. Hughes, G. D. McCarthy, C. G. Piecuch, R. M. Ponte, M. D. Thomas (2019): The Relationship between United States East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a Review, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124, 6435-6458.
- E. L. Ashe, N. Cahill, C. Hay, N. S. Khan, A. Kemp, S. E. Engelhart, B. P. Horton, A. C. Parnell, R. E. Kopp (2019): Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum temperatures in County Dublin, Ireland, Environmetrics, 204, 58-77.